Commission Proposal Tabledcritical risk
MFF 2028–2034 — Multiannual Financial Framework
Commission tabled €2 trillion MFF proposal July 2025. Negotiations ongoing. Single most consequential institutional process affecting all EU programmes, cohesion, defence, migration. ECOFIN and EP Budget Committee central actors.
9.1
/10 risk index
Escalating
Baseline: 7.8 → Now: 9.1
30-Day Risk History
Primary Law
1 instrumentsNEW
REGULATION
2025-07-15European Commission DG BUDG
Stage:Council negotiations — EP Budget Committee scrutiny
€2 trillion total budget framework. Covers cohesion, CAP, defence, migration, climate. Unanimity required in Council. EP consent vote final step.
Watch: ECOFIN General Approach (Q3 2026) — requires unanimity
Watch Signals
ECOFIN General Approach achievedcritical
Requires all 27 member states unanimous agreement on spending ceilings.
EP Budget Committee opinion votehigh
Signals EP negotiating red lines on own resources and spending priorities.
Net contributor states bloc positionhigh
Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden coordination determines ceiling feasibility.
Own resources decision proposalcritical
New EU revenue streams (digital levy, CBAM revenues) required for €2T ambition.