EU Policy Intelligence Monitor

Standard Topic View

Council negotiating boxes — no general approachcritical risk

MFF 2028–2034 — Multiannual Financial Framework

The Commission proposed a four-heading €1.984T MFF (1.26% of GNI). Parliament seeks 1.27% and wants NextGenerationEU debt service outside the ceilings. A revised Council negotiating box was presented on 11 Jun 2026, but divisions persisted at the early-Sep informal GAC.

Editorial snapshot: 2026-09-13

9.2

/10 risk index

Escalating

Baseline: 7.8 → Now: 9.2

Primary Law

1 instruments

PROPOSAL

MFF 2028–2034 Regulation proposal (COM(2025) 571)

2025-07-16EUR-Lex

Stage:Council horizontal negotiations; Parliament position adopted

The Commission proposal is €1.984T in current prices. Council unanimity and Parliament consent are required; the treatment of €168B in NGEU repayment remains contested.

Watch: Irish Presidency negotiating box in early Oct and European Council on 15 Oct 2026

Current Topic Updates

4 curated items

LAWNEW2026-06-11

Cyprus Presidency presents revised negotiating box

The revised box reduced the proposed ceiling while preserving the four-heading structure.

Council Presidency

LAWNEW2026-03-15

MFF Negotiating Box — Presidency Circulates First Compromise on Spending Ceilings

Polish Presidency circulates negotiating box with 1.2% GNI ceiling (between Commission 1.3% and net contributors 1.1%). Defence heading at €120B (below Commission €150B). Cohesion cut by 8%. Agricultural spending flat.

consilium.europa.eu

LAWNEW2026-02-28

EP Budget Committee — Resolution on MFF Priorities Adopted

EP adopts resolution demanding: minimum 1.3% GNI, €150B defence, cohesion maintained at current levels, new digital/AI heading, own resources before agreement. Red lines drawn for consent vote.

europarl.europa.eu

COMMENTARY2026-02-01

Net Contributor States Coordinate Position — Cap at 1.1% GNI, No New Own Resources

Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Denmark joint position paper: MFF ceiling 1.1% GNI, NGEU repayment from existing ceiling, no new own resources without national parliament approval. Blocks Commission ambition.

Politico Europe

MFF 2028–2034 — Multiannual Financial Framework

Editorial snapshot: 2026-09-13