Scenarios Tracked
12
Active policy scenarios
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Probability Matrix
— all 12 scenarios at a glance| Scenario | Bull | Base | Bear | Bar | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Act | 18% | 46% | 36% | 64% | |
| Migration Pact | 20% | 50% | 30% | 62% | |
| MFF 2028–2034 | 20% | 50% | 30% | 55% | |
| Climate 2040 | 15% | 55% | 30% | 72% | |
| EU–China | 20% | 45% | 35% | 65% | |
| Competitiveness | 22% | 50% | 28% | 64% | |
| Enlargement | 18% | 50% | 32% | 58% | |
| Mercosur | 18% | 42% | 40% | 72% | |
| Greenland | 20% | 45% | 35% | 65% | |
| Ukraine | 25% | 48% | 27% | 58% | |
| EU Defence | 25% | 55% | 20% | 81% | |
| VdL Powers | 25% | 50% | 25% | 70% |
AI ActBase leaning
AI Act enforcement credibility hinges on GPAI code of practice and member state readiness
Bull 18%Base 46%Bear 36%
GPAI code energy documentation scopeMember state authority designationAI Office capacityDC environmental regulation coherence
Migration PactBase leaning
Migration Pact implementation faces existential test at June 2026 deadline
Bull 20%Base 50%Bear 30%
Member state implementation rateMediterranean arrival numbersHungary/Poland complianceEurodac IT system readiness
MFF 2028–2034Base leaning
MFF negotiations — most consequential EU budget battle since 2020, outcome defines decade
Bull 20%Base 50%Bear 30%
Net contributor ceiling positionOwn resources decision progressDefence heading sizeNGEU repayment interaction
Climate 2040Base leaning
2040 climate target vote defines EU environmental policy trajectory for a generation
Bull 15%Base 55%Bear 30%
EP ENVI vote outcomeCCUS counting methodologyIndustry lobby effectivenessCBAM revenue trajectory
EU–ChinaBase leaning
EU-China strategic competition intensifies — trade war risk at highest since 2019
Bull 20%Base 45%Bear 35%
Chinese retaliation scopeFSR enforcement precedentOutbound screening proposalBYD circumvention success
CompetitivenessBase leaning
Draghi agenda at crossroads — Automotive Package and EU Inc. test political will
Bull 22%Base 50%Bear 28%
Automotive Package trilogue28th regime political feasibilityDraghi implementation rateEU productivity gap trajectory
EnlargementBase leaning
Enlargement momentum unprecedented — institutional reform the binding constraint
Bull 18%Base 50%Bear 32%
Ukraine chapter progressMontenegro target dateInstitutional reform appetiteSerbia-Kosovo normalization
MercosurBase leaning
EU–Mercosur ratification by end-2027: narrow probability window
Bull 18%Base 42%Bear 40%
French safeguard clause resolutionQMV Council arithmeticEP majority coalitionBrazil environmental compliance
GreenlandBase leaning
US–EU geopolitical competition for Greenland reaches inflection in 2026
Bull 20%Base 45%Bear 35%
Greenland independence momentumUS bilateral pressure intensityEU development fund sizeDanish-Greenland constitutional evolution
UkraineBase leaning
Ceasefire probability rises to 40% in 2026 — EU reconstruction role pivotal
Bull 25%Base 48%Bear 27%
US pressure on Kyiv for negotiationsRussian military capacityEU unity on supportUkraine domestic political stability
EU DefenceBase leaning
SAFE Regulation passage near-certain; real test is procurement quality
Bull 25%Base 55%Bear 20%
SAFE trilogue resolutionMember state procurement decisionsEU–UK cooperation frameworkNATO interoperability
VdL PowersBase leaning
Von der Leyen II legacy defined by Climate vs Competitiveness balance
Bull 25%Base 50%Bear 25%
2040 climate target EP voteOmnibus simplification depthMigration pact compliance enforcementInstitutional overreach risk