Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran have been escalating since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes in April and October 2024. In June 2025, a 12-day war saw the US target Iran's nuclear facilities. January 2026 saw mass protests in Iran — the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — which were violently suppressed, killing thousands. Indirect nuclear negotiations were ongoing in February 2026 when the US and Israel launched Operation Roaring Lion without warning, even as talks were in progress. The strikes used over 1,200 bombs in the first 24 hours.

US and Israeli forces have conducted over 3,000 airstrikes targeting Iran's missile production, nuclear infrastructure, and government sites across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed early in the campaign; his son Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed as successor but was reportedly wounded and has not appeared publicly. Iran has retaliated by launching missiles and drones at 7 Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Three commercial ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has confirmed mining operations in the waterway — effectively blockading one of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes. The IEA has authorized an emergency release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves to stabilize energy markets. Around 140 US service members have been wounded so far. Lebanon has been drawn in: Israeli forces have entered southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions that fired rockets into northern Israel, causing 570 deaths and displacing over 667,000 Lebanese. Trump declared on March 12 the war will end 'soon, very soon' but provided no mechanism. Iran's IRGC stated it is ready for 'a long-term war of attrition that will destroy the entire American economy.' The situation remains critically unstable.

Brent crude surged above $120/barrel before IEA's 400M barrel emergency release. Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil trade flows — partially blockaded by Iranian mines. Global shipping insurance rates have tripled. US domestic gasoline prices at record highs, alarming Republican congresspeople ahead of midterms. EU gas prices up 40% in two weeks.

EU is not participating militarily. President Costa has condemned the strikes as escalatory. Von der Leyen has called for 'immediate de-escalation' and protection of civilian lives. The EU is coordinating emergency energy reserves and preparing to receive potential refugee flows from Lebanon. Belgium has evacuated its embassy in Tehran. No EU consensus on sanctions — some member states (France, Germany) explicitly oppose the war; others (Poland, Baltic states) are focused on Russia-Ukraine.